The shortage in the semiconductor industry has hit automakers and consumer electronics companies, but the situation has become more serious, which has made the recovery of the global economy from the coronavirus pandemic more complicated.

According to research by Susquehanna Financial Group, the chip ordering time (the time interval between ordering a chip and delivering it) increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating that users are increasingly eager to obtain supplies. This is the longest waiting time since the company started tracking data in 2017, the so-called “danger zone.”

Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland wrote in a report on Tuesday: “All major product categories have risen sharply.” “This is the biggest increase since we started tracking data. .”

The problem of chip shortages continues to spread across industries, preventing companies from transporting products from cars to game consoles and refrigerators. Because Ford Motor Company, General Motors and other companies have to idle their factories due to lack of necessary parts, automakers are now expected to lose 110 billion U.S. dollars in sales this year. This weakens economic growth and employment, and intensifies people’s concerns about panic order, which may cause distortions in the future.

The chip industry and its customers regard delivery time as an indicator of the balance of supply and demand. The increase in the gap indicates that semiconductor buyers are more willing to commit to future supplies to avoid recurring shortages. Analysts see these figures as a harbinger of as accumulation, which may lead to excessive inventory accumulation and sudden decline in orders.

Rolland wrote: “The increase in delivery time usually forces customers to’bad behavior’, including inventory accumulation, safety stock establishment and double ordering.” “These trends may stimulate semiconductors in the early stages of excess shipments that exceed real customer demand. industry.”

Since Taiwan is an important location for chip manufacturing, the surge in coronavirus cases has made the situation even more complicated. The country closed schools, curbed social gatherings, and closed museums and public facilities. During business and factory operations, the government may have to consider broader restrictions.

Taiwan is the seat of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the most advanced chip manufacturer in the world, and Apple and Qualcomm are among its many customers. Local manufacturers also produce less attractive but equally important chips, such as display driver ICs, which have become a particularly painful bottleneck for global production.

On Wednesday, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention raised the alert level on the island and extended Kovic’s containment measures to the whole country. The Water Resources Management Bureau said on the same day that Taiwan needs to strengthen water-saving measures, because in the traditional rainy season there is very little rainfall, which exacerbates the drought, which also threatens production.

TSMC said in a statement that it will continue to tighten water consumption and does not expect these measures to affect its operations.

Roland wrote in his report that the current waiting time is 17 weeks, rising from the level of 16 weeks, marking the fourth consecutive month of “substantial” expansion.

Even after months of shortage, the delivery time of certain products is still increasing sharply. For example, according to Susquehanna, the power management chip reached 23.7 weeks in April, which is four weeks longer than the waiting time a month ago. He wrote that the ordering time for industrial microcontrollers has been extended by three weeks, which is the largest increase that Rolland has seen since it started tracking numbers in 2017.

People familiar with the supply chain say that for small manufacturers, delays are usually more serious, because headset manufacturers have more than 52 weeks of delivery time. A person familiar with the matter said that this forced the company to redesign products, change priorities, and in at least one case, completely abandon a project because the information is not public and requires anonymity.

Among the companies tracked by Rolland, about 70% of the delivery time is constantly expanding, while the lead time contract is only 20%. The delivery time of NXP Semiconductors NV, a major automotive chip supplier, is now more than 22 weeks, compared with about 12 weeks in the second half of last year. The delivery time of STMicroelectronics NV, another major supplier of automotive chips, increased by more than four weeks in April to more than 28 weeks.

Such a large increase may reflect the oversubscription of some customers, who may worry about the impact of the shortage on their business. Historically, the company has been able to cancel chip orders without being fined, although this situation has begun to change.

“Starting from the January data, we have witnessed many large JUMPs in the reported LT,” Rolland wrote when referring to delivery time. “Compared with previous years, a single company usually moves its prescribed LT up and down within a few days of a given month. Starting this year, we have found that the substantial increase in LT has biased our data.”