The European Central Bank says inflation and growth expectations “rise”

European Central Bank policymakers have said that growth and inflation in the Eurozone are more likely to exceed expectations, sparking debate about whether a brighter outlook means slowing down its bond purchases.

In the minutes of the discussion published on Friday, at the last monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank in April, some members of its board of directors stated that the risks of economic activity and medium-term inflation expectations have become more “upward sloping.”

Although most council members believe that there are still downside risks to the short-term growth prospects of the Eurozone, they pointed out that the recent rebound in global demand, the boost from the US fiscal stimulus and the signs of accelerated Covid-19 are “encouraging” inoculation in Europe vaccine.

The European Central Bank said: “In this context, it is generally believed that in the medium term, the risk of activity has become more balanced, while also expressing their current slight upward risk.”

Although the Council recognizes that price pressures are “still easing overall,” the Council stated that “although the policy-related medium-term inflation outlook has remained basically unchanged from the March meeting, it can be considered that the risk to this outlook may be Upward”.

The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, plans to invite the next members of the European Central Bank to meet in person for the first time in more than a year. This highlights the European Central Bank’s confidence in how to control the European coronavirus pandemic. The confidence of the European Central Bank.

At the next monetary policy meeting on June 10, whether the European Central Bank is slowing down the purchase of emergency bonds is becoming increasingly fierce. At that time, the central bank will also increase its growth and inflation expectations in the next few years.

After turning negative at the end of last year, the Eurozone inflation rate has rebounded this year and climbed to 1.6% in April. The European Central Bank predicts that by 2021, before prices fall below the 2023 target, the European Central Bank’s price growth in 2021 will exceed the central bank’s target of slightly less than 2% for the first time in more than two years.

The European Central Bank decided in March to purchase bonds at a “significantly higher pace” in the second quarter to avoid a sell-off in the bond market prematurely undermining its commitment to maintain “favorable financing conditions” before the start of the European recovery.

The borrowing costs of Eurozone member states have climbed to their highest level in nearly a year, as economic growth rebounds and inflationary pressures have made government bonds less attractive. The country’s GDP-weighted average 10-year Treasury bond yield climbed to 0.21%, the highest level since June, although it is still very low by historical standards.

This move was largely driven by rising yields on German ultra-safe bonds-Germany is now the only country in the Eurozone, and the yield on its 10-year sovereign bonds is still below zero.

For the European Central Bank, what is even more worrying is that the additional benefits paid by weaker euro zone member states have also increased. The spread between the yield on Italian 10-year government bonds and German government bonds was 1.15 percentage points, up from 0.91 percentage points in February, when Draghi was appointed as Italian prime minister, which boosted people’s confidence.

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