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The British economy showed resilience in the second round of the coronavirus, with strong growth in March and a contraction of only 1.5% in the first quarter of 2021.
Official data show that the summer economic outlook is brighter and the recovery from the coronavirus is stronger than expected in recent months.
The National Bureau of Statistics also said on Wednesday that Britain’s imports and exports continued to recover in March. However, after the Brexit transitional period in January ended and greater border restrictions were imposed, trade with the EU appeared to decrease.
Indonesian Prime Minister Rishi Sunak welcomed the above figures, saying that the economy is showing “signs of hope” after “a difficult start this year”.
The 1.5% contraction in the first quarter was in line with economists’ expectations and was due to a 2.5% reduction in the size of the economy due to the third lock-in in January.
As the company adapts to these restrictions, consumers are increasingly willing to shop online, so the growth in February and March exceeded expectations, indicating that the second quarter will continue to maintain rapid growth.
Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to EY Item Club, stated that in the first three months of this year, the economy was in a “pretty elastic” state and the losses caused by the blockade were “much less than feared at the beginning of the quarter. “.
As recently as February, the Bank of England had predicted a 4.2% decline in GDP in the first quarter.
In March, the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded expectations, increasing by 2.1%, the fastest monthly growth rate since August last year, making the UK economy only 5.9% smaller than in February 2020 before the pandemic broke out.
Ruth Gregory, a senior British economist at Capital Economics, said the economy is currently on track to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year and before the Bank of England’s forecast last week. She said: “The explosive growth in March shows that the recovery is faster than we thought.”
In the first quarter, government spending drove economic growth, partly because vaccinations and coronavirus testing increased health activities, while consumer spending and business investment decreased due to the third lockdown.
But in March, when the number of Covid-19 cases fell rapidly, supported by the reopening of classrooms in schools and strong retail sales, the service industry grew by 1.9%, achieving a balance, and output increased by 1.8%. With the increase in new jobs and repairs, the construction industry also surged by 5.8%.
The monthly trade statistics released at the same time as the GDP data show that although the trade with the EU has gradually returned to normal levels after the end of Brexit, it still continues to shift from trade with the EU to non-EU countries. Transition period.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that imports of goods (excluding precious metals) from EU countries in March increased by 4.5% to 17.8 billion pounds. Imports from countries outside the EU increased by 8.4% to 19.3 billion pounds.
According to official statistics, for the first time since comparable records began in 1997, Britain’s imports from countries outside the EU have exceeded imports from countries outside the EU. This is because of the imbalances that have emerged from the pandemic on a global scale. Businesses increased trade.
But the National Bureau of Statistics said that the ongoing turmoil means that it is too early to assess whether this reflects a short-term disruption or a long-term change, as trade began to resume after the Covid disruption.
Data in March showed that after the Covid pandemic and the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, the UK’s international trade has seen a partial decline, which has promoted the UK’s international trade to a certain extent.
Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at ONS, said that exports to the European Union have almost returned to their December levels. “However, imports from Europe in the first three months of this year are still weak, surpassing non-EU imports for the first time on record.”
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