Economists predict that the U.S. inflation rate will jump to 3.6% in April


US consumer prices are expected to rise 3.6% in April from a year ago. This prospect has frightened the market and may exacerbate concerns that inflationary pressures are easing.

According to consensus forecasts compiled by Refinitiv, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report on Wednesday that its consumer price index rose from 2.6% in March to 3.6% last month, and 2020 is the same month. It will be the most difficult year. Year-on-year growth since 2011.

Excluding the fluctuations in food and energy prices, the CPI is expected to rise from 1.6% in March to 2.3% in April each year.

This U.S. inflation As some investors, economists and analysts worry that the rapid promotion of the coronavirus vaccine will bring heavy financial support, supply bottlenecks and high demand, which will lead to risky price increases in the next few months, so this reading book Aroused special attention of people.

However, Fed officials and senior economists in the Biden administration, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, said they expect this increase to be temporary.

The high CPI data are not only due to the “base effect”, because they have fallen compared with the inflation rate when the coronavirus crisis broke out last year. U.S. economic policymakers also believe that the deflation that has dominated the global economy in the past few decades The pressure has not subsided.

Fed officials’ tolerance for inflation has increased, partly because consumer prices are often lower than the central bank’s 2% target, and they are still working to increase their value even with loose monetary policy.

“As far as supply chain congestion and other reopening frictions are temporary, they are unlikely to generate sustained high inflation on their own,” Lyle BrainardThe Fed governor said on Tuesday.

She said: “The continuous and substantial increase in the inflation rate not only requires wages or prices to rise within a period of time after the reopening, but it is also widely expected that they will continue to grow at a sustained high rate.”

Although the Fed and the U.S. Treasury Department have limited concerns, since the last CPI, concerns about rising inflation rates have been quite common in U.S. companies and are considered by investors to be the cause of the sharp rise in inflation. Stock market sell-off this week.

Berkshire Hathaway chief executive Warren Buffett said earlier this month that his company’s executives saw “very severe” inflation. “People are raising prices to us and being accepted by people.”

Tyson Foods said this week that it has substantially increased its prices. The company’s chief operating officer Downey King said: “In general, the intensified inflation environment is bringing meaningful resistance to prepared food in the second half of the year.” “We have seen raw material costs rise by more than 15%, and logistics, The cost of packaging and labor is also increasing.”

Additional report by Matthew Rocco



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