Grumpy Economist: An Inflationary Choice?

Grumpy Economist: An Inflationary Choice?



Torsten Slok from Apollo.Thorsten explained

The current upper and lower prices show that the market believes that the probability that the inflation rate will be above 3% in the next five years is 30%, and the probability that the inflation rate will be below 1% is 5%. Please refer to the table below. In the five-year balance of payments, people can also see similar concerns that the inflation rate is currently 2.5%, which is the highest level since 2008.

Regarding permanent inflation concerns, I habitually face the fact that bond prices do not indicate inflation. I have to point out that they never did this-interest rates did not predict inflation in the 1970s, nor did they predict inflation in the 1980s. I said that inflation is unpredictable and as risky as the California earthquake.

But once, asset prices seemed to have a certain degree of inflation risk.

These are option prices. The main forecast is still weak inflation. But these option prices indicate that inflation is indeed more likely to explode. The risk is greater, not the certainty. In addition, it doesn’t really scream-after all, our price is about July 2018.

According to Torsten, despite the high price,

I think it is very unlikely that the CPI inflation rate will exceed 2.5% or 3% within five years.


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