COVID-19 bill reveals five things about how Washington will operate in the Biden era

President Biden is about to sign a law $1.9 trillion bill Designed to promote economic development and help the United States deal with the impact of the new coronavirus pandemic.This is only the second bill Biden has signed the law And may be one of the most important. So let’s take a look at what we learned from the process of making this legislation:

The Democratic Party headed by Biden is more liberal and populist than Obama or Clinton’s version.

In 2009, Barack Obama was in the White House, and the Democrats controlled the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.This Great recession Still going all out, and the first thing the party did was to propose a stimulus bill.But many Democrats, especially Milder congressman, Please be cautious about supporting excessive expenditures.So the Democrats make sure that the bill Cost less than $1 trillion, Finally landed on $787 billion figure.

How White House Economists Think about COVID-19 Relief | 58

Twelve years later, the Democrats passed a bill that roughly doubled expenditures from the 2009 bill. The economic challenges posed by COVID-19 are very different from those caused by the collapse of the banking and real estate bubble in 2008, so it is difficult to compare them one by one, and it is also difficult to tell whether the stimulus package in 2009 or whether it is closer to 2008. The best range of expenditures to stimulate economic development. But I think that the 2021 stimulus bill will spend more than in 2009, and it’s not just the underlying economic situation.The Democratic Party today is Further left Compared to the 2009 version, it is more open, more open to spending, not to worry about being elected as a liberal in a big government.Therefore, although the bill aims to promote economic development through COVID-19 in the short term, it also includes many Free policy Even if there is no stoppage caused by the coronavirus, such as increasing child tax credits, Democrats may try to adopt $3,000 per school-age child with Increase in subsidies Applicable to people who purchase health insurance through the Affordable Care Act.

Indeed, the left wing of the party very happy This legislation.

“This is the severity of the problem,” he said. Mike KonczalDirector of the Roosevelt Institute for Progress.

He added: “It’s not diminished by fear of doing too much, exercise moderation, or cynical debt concerns. Excellence.”

David Dayen, a left-leaning American prospect Describes the bill Known as “a deposit paid to reverse the unequal treatment of the middle class in the United States for 40 years.”

“The U.S. rescue plan is the most important piece of legislation that has benefited the working people in the country’s modern history,” Senator Bernie Sanders said.

What changes have taken place since 2009 to make Democrats more satisfied with this bill?Most importantly, the left wing of the party-Senators Sanders and Elizabeth Warren-has Greater power and influence, Pull Biden and other gentler figures to the left. The Democrats also seem to have concluded that spending a lot of money or being portrayed as being too eager to spend federal money does not have much election risk.This may be because it is not clear whether Republicans have suffered in the election due to the massive increase in national debt. During Trump’s presidency.

Since the early days of President Obama’s presidency, Democrats, especially Biden, seem to have learned some lessons…

For Biden, “unity” does not necessarily mean bipartisan cooperation.

Before Biden took office A proposal of $1.9 trillion was made Used for COVID-19 relief. I think this is a negotiation strategy. He will lower this number by a portion to win the Republican votes on Capitol Hill. He didn’t.Instead, Biden and his assistant meet Republicans in Congress He also said that the government is willing to reach a compromise with the Republican Party, but Biden has never fundamentally changed his proposal. The Biden administration seems to prioritize setting its policy goals, rather than trying to reach an agreement that Democrats think Republicans are not interested in. (More information about the Republican Party’s position.)

Biden’s approach shows that the former vice president has learned the same lessons as political experts and politicians from the Obama era. Other democratic politicians It’s true: Republicans may be reluctant to reach an agreement with Democratic presidents on major legislation, regardless of the details. The Obama administration spent several months in 2009 negotiating with Republicans in Congress on the bill, which is now called “Obamacare”, even though the bill has now been implemented. It’s pretty clear that the Republicans will never reach an agreement And let Obama become one of the signature bills of the two parties.

If their attitude towards the COVID-19 relief bill is instructive, then it seems that Biden and his aides have not completely abandoned the president’s unified speech. From his inauguration speech -They just don’t want to pursue legislative goals for this.The Biden team implemented etiquette Bipartisan relations— Hold regular meetings Maintain courtesy to Republicans in Congress-and implement legislation that is popular among many Republicans voter (And keep Emphasize this point).For example, polls show a big part Republican voters Supported Stimulus package.

But will Biden’s main initiative be passed with a lot of Republican votes? At this point, it seems very, very unlikely.Democrats in Congress are already discussing the use of Settlement procedures Once again-this is how the stimulus package was formulated- Pass the infrastructure bill. Through reconciliation, Democrats can bypass the Senate opposition and pass legislation without any Republican votes.

Democrats have a big problem.

Democrats like Sanders are eager to increase the minimum wage in the COVID-19 relief bill, as this may be one of the few major laws enacted this year-at least as long as there are people who oppose it. .But members of the Senate say that the federal minimum wage is $15 Would violate the budget Define what can be included in the statement. So the Democrats deleted it from the legislation.

As long as the 60-vote threshold is maintained, the minimum salary of $15 may not be the only main item on the Democratic agenda.bill Reform the electoral system, Limit discrimination Against Americans Based on sexual orientation and gender identity, and Changing policing practice Due to the opposition of the senators, the recent bill passed in the House of Representatives also seems to have died in the Senate.

Democrats also have a big Manchin-Sinema problem.

Of course, for waste paper ust, this is the most important.Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona are the most prestigious Democrats Oppose to get rid of the opposition. And because Democrats can only control 50 Senate seats, so long as any Democrat (and all Republicans) hope, Democrats will continue to hold office.

But at least based on this stimulus process, Democrats may encounter the Manchin-Sinema problem and even put the opposition aside. In particular, it will continue to be difficult to obtain votes for the Senate from West Virginia. Biden may get a house, a plane, and an oval office, but his tenure may be clearest by what Manchin wants (and doesn’t want).

The Democratic Party’s COVID Relief Act is popular, but the Republican Party may not vote for it

On this stimulus bill, Manchin and some other conservative Democrats forced the party to restrict cash payments to individuals Annual income is less than $80,000, And the bill initially allowed people with incomes under $100,000 to get at least some money.Man Qin Ye Successfully promoted the reduction of unemployment benefits Costs range from US$400 to US$300 per week.When the bill passed Congress, Manchin Declared against Biden’s nominee at the time, Neera Tanden, effectively managed the Office of Management and Budget Killed her nomination.The senator has hinted He is cautious about supporting the infrastructure bill If there is no GOP support.

Having said that, Manchin who represents the country Biden lost 39 percentage points in 2020Just returned $1.9 trillion in bills. Therefore, let us not exaggerate his resistance to the party’s main goals.

Republicans are using their Obama era script.

By sticking to its $1.9 trillion price tag and including priorities unrelated to COVID-19, the Democrats almost guaranteed the Republican Party’s strong opposition to the bill. At the same time, apart from a few Republicans, no one else will vote for Biden’s stimulus plan.Voting ends Trump’s impeachment And remove And controversy On behalf of Liz Cheney (Liz Cheney) with Marjorie Taylor Greene Split the Republicans in Congress.So Republican congressional leaders want Unity party Against Biden’s stimulus bill.

Even if they don’t want to overcome party friction against Trump, Republicans may still Mobilize against this bill.All indications are that Republicans believe that the way to regain control of the House and/or Senate next year is Repeat the Obama era strategy: Strongly oppose the agenda of the current Democratic Party chairman.

These are my main benefits from the COVID-19 Relief Act. Nothing is completely surprising, but this process clarifies how Biden holds the presidency.

During the 2020 campaign and after his victory, Biden Suggestions can persuade some Republicans to support his agenda Because of his role and long term on Capitol Hill.These comments are (and are) wise politically and voters, because most voters Hope all parties work together, And if at least the president hopes to cooperate with them, most congressmen will be more inclined to the president. But it seems that the sentence is just a veneer. I mean, maybe Biden actually thinks he can win some Republican votes, and the COVID-19 relief bill shows him how impossible this will be. However, it is more likely that Biden’s discussion of working with Republicans has been politically expedient.

When things became reality, Biden passed a bill only through a Democratic vote, and did not make major changes to appease the Republican Party and defined the two-party system in this way: Does not include acquisition any stand by From Republican congressman. Biden cannot change the underlying partisan dynamics in Washington, and no matter what he tells voters during the campaign, he seems to have realized this.

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