Will the stimulus inspection debate over $2,000 help the Democrats in Georgia?

Congressional Democrats are Strive to give most Americans $2,000 The stimulus check is considered to be a quick and direct way to help millions of Americans cope with the economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.President Trump Support for payments of USD 2,000Yes, but most Congressional Republicans don’t. Due to opposition from the Republican Party in Congress, the $2,000 check is unlikely to become law.But the Democrats think they have a Election won Before the U.S. Senate’s run-off election in Georgia next week.

Why many pollsters can’t determine runoff in Georgia

Public opinion does seem to be on the side of the Democratic Party. According to a poll conducted from December 22 to 28, 78% of Americans said they support these $2,000 stimulus checks, while 17% of those who opposed it said they opposed it. Progress data. Similarly, Survey conducted by Business Insider and Survey Monkey It was discovered on December 21 that 62% of Americans said that the $600 stimulus check used in the most recent bill was not enough; 76% said that payments should exceed $1,000.

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Therefore, the Democrats are working hard to promote this issue. Georgia State Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock Strongly accept a payment plan of USD 2,000.Their Republican opponents, Sel. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, also Suggest they support payment.But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Mitch McConnell) is Create procedural barriers to stop the payment of $2,000 Pass the Senate, give Osov with Warnock Because they support McConnell’s continued leadership as the majority party, they have the opportunity to show that Loeffler and Perdue are barriers to payment.

So all of this seems to be right for the Democrats, right? Maybe.Democrats praised a popular idea before anything Looks very close to the election, And the Republicans blocked it. This question is likely to help Warnock and Osoff in Georgia next week. But for some reason, we should not be so sure…

First, It is not clear whether voters care about policy when deciding who to vote.

The most reliable predictor of how Americans vote is party affiliation: Republican-leaning voters support Republican candidates, and Democratic-leaning voters support Democratic candidates. The labels and identities of these parties certainly contain ideological and policy colors: the Republican Party, at least in terms of rhetoric, is more vigilant than the Democrats about huge basic spending plans. But these colors do not seem to promote voting options. There are many examples of a political party promoting unpopular ideas without switching voters to another party.For example, the GOP agenda for 2017 and 2018, trying to Repeal Obamacare with Tax cuts for businesses, Is not popular among Republican voters, but these voters Overwhelming support for Republican candidates in mid-2018.

The Progressive Data Survey shows that 73% of Republicans across the country support this $2,000 payment, and 52% of them firmly support it. Based on these figures, it is almost certain that most Republicans in Georgia support this payment. indeed, DFP’s poll of Georgia A survey conducted between November 15 and 20 found that 63% of voters in the state said they would be more likely to support a candidate who agreed to pay $1,200 to the majority of Americans as a COVID-19 relief plan a part of. The 63% figure also shows that these payment methods are popular and supported by Republican voters.

However, because of this problem, many Republicans are unlikely to support the Democratic candidate in Georgia. Yes, both elections seem to be ongoing, so even small changes in voting preferences are important.But in an election so close, if Ossoff and Warnock both win by a narrow margin, I would hesitate to attribute the victory to Democrats’ support for this stimulus and McConnell’s Objection instead of something like The Democrats have strong voting rights in the state, The weaknesses of Loeffler and Perdue and Georgia’s growing liberalism.

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What about swing voters/independents and others who are not necessarily connected to one of the two parties?Well, the evidence shows Such voters do not necessarily have clear policy preferences with And pay little attention to politics. Therefore, this stimulating debate may convince them that the Republicans in Washington must be deposed.In addition, perhaps these voters did not actively participate in this stimulating debate like Loeffler’s advertisement. Cast Warnock as a radical Or Warnock’s ad Claiming to be the owner of a good dog.

second, Voters prefer the economic thinking of the Democratic Party than the Democrats.

In the past few years, voting activities have been aimed at Increase the minimum wage and Expansion of Medicaid In states favored by the Conservative Party have passed, legislators and governors in Republican states have blocked similar policies. But Republicans still win elections in these areas. This happened in Florida this year. Sunshine State passed a proposal to gradually increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2026. 61% of voters Embrace it. But Joe Biden, Resolutely support a minimum wage of 15 dollars, In Florida only won 48% of the vote, while Trump has only 51% of the vote. Trump has always been cautious about minimum wage increases.

These voting methods are another example of the partisan system being beyond or completely independent of voters’ policy preferences, but there are other potential reasons for this separation. Voters may support certain economic populist ideas, but if they elect a Democratic candidate, they may be wary of excessive economic populism. Some voters may support the Democratic Party’s economic populism, but will not support the party because it is too progressive on issues such as abortion rights or maintaining law and order.For example, in the 2016 general election, Lee Drutman, a New American scholar and FiveThirtyEight contributor, found that voters who tend to be conservative on issues such as immigration but are left on economic issues are More likely to support Trump Bigger than Hillary Clinton.Finally, many voters Not adapted at all Which political party or candidate prefers which policy.

When you bring it to Georgia, you can easily imagine that some vacillating voters support paying the Americans $2,000, but are more supportive of the Republican Senate candidates and ensure that Democrats in Washington cannot control the White House. with Both houses of Congress.

At last, Trump has disrupted politics in terms of stimulus measures.

You can also imagine that some voters are confused about this issue. If Trump firmly supports the $2,000 check, and Loeffler and Perdue also support it, it may not be clear to voters that the wider Republican Party still opposes payments, which is an obstacle to approving them. Especially during Trump’s la-foot period, in terms of policy, McConnell was the most important Republican in Washington. But Trump is still the decisive figure for the majority of voters and the party in the electoral context. If Trump announces that he supports a payment of $2,000, voters in Georgia may conclude that Republicans will support them more broadly, even if McConnell blocked the payment and Loeffler ) And Perdue are effectively helping him to do this, and this is the case here.

[What The Early Vote In Georgia Can — And Can’t — Tell Us]

In summary, this direct payment debate that coincides with the Georgia election shows how electoral politics and governance intersect in interesting ways.Although it is not clear whether the debate on stimulus payments will affect the election results, Yes Obviously the upcoming general election has affected the debate on the stimulus package.According to reports, Republicans are worried Opposition to direct payments on the eve of the race war in GeorgiaTo ensure that most Americans are provided with $600 Included in the COVID-19 economic stimulus plan that Trump signed into law on Sunday. Now, Republicans worry that Georgia may boycott the $2,000 payment and cause an election backlash. These election concerns have led Loeffler and Perdue (Loeffler and Perdue) to generally take a more conservative stance, breaking with McConnell and other Republicans to openly support the election. (Of course, Loeffler and Perdue may align with McConnell’s strategy to ensure that the $2,000 payment does not become law.)

So the Democrats may have figured out how to make more populist policies available: promote them during elections. However, even if Osov and Warnock win next week, there will be little evidence of the autonomy of popular economic policies for the Democratic election.

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