Yes, the unemployment rate has dropped. But the recovery seems to be slowing down.

After the unemployment rate has fallen for three consecutive months, we only have just Back to unemployment rate Can contend with the abyss of the Great Depression.Friday work report The data shows that the unemployment rate dropped from 11.1% in June to 10.2% in July, and the number of employed persons in July increased by 1.8 million from June.

Therefore, the economic recovery is continuing-but progress is very slow, and we are almost out of the predicament. However, this report may be worse.After all, the weekly unemployment benefits Rose a little After falling for 15 consecutive weeks since late March, it appeared in July. Across the country, due to the surge in COVID-19 infections, the phased reopening of jobs in the past month has been cancelled, preventing more workers from returning to work.

But the unemployment rate has not fallen at the rate you expect from a recovering economy: the improvement from June to July is less than half of the improvement from May to June. Moreover, if the economic momentum slows down, it means that the recovery may be long and painful-especially if Congress (currently deadlocked by the next round of coronavirus relief) cuts the injection that has been in the economy since March Assistance.

Since April, the economy has now recovered about 9 million jobs, and by then, 21 million jobs have been lost. The unemployment rate has also fallen sharply from the official peak of 14.7% in April-in fact, due to rising unemployment, the unemployment rate may be close to 20%. Misclassification In a survey used to generate employment reports, the Bureau of Labor Statistics now seems to have basically controlled the situation.

A clear message from this month’s employment report is that Recent rise Nationwide, COVID-19 infection does not seem to be the case Reversing Economic recovery.This is a bit contrary to the mixed economic signals we have received in the past few weeks: in addition to rising weekly unemployment, GDP growth Bleak in history In the second quarter of this year-the annualized rate dropped 32.9%.Combine Payroll processing company ADP report The sharp drop in recruitment in July was enough to stimulate speculation about the economy. May have slipped, As The growth of consumer spending has stagnated Only a few weeks after the phased reopening of states took effect, companies across the country were forced to scale back their operations.

According to the weekly pulse survey of the U.S. Census Bureau, People’s share WHO expected After the weekly decrease began in early May, the unemployment rate of someone in a household who lost their job income rose from less than 32% in early June to 35% in early July. This seems to be the main indicator of unemployment because it measures the degree of labor anxiety before actual unemployment.

However, although these trends may contradict the data in today’s report, their measurement of economic conditions is not perfect. Although they appear more frequently than monthly job reports, the weekly job search does not necessarily reflect the ongoing job loss. With such a large number, some fluctuations in weekly claims may not be so meaningful at this point.

At the same time, not all the real-time economic data we have seen recently are bad.For example, data from job search websites, such as indeed Data show that since the sharp drop in April, job postings have been showing a steady upward trend. At the beginning of May, job postings fell by nearly 40% compared to the same period in 2019, but only decreased by 18% compared to the same period last year. We expect that the decline in the unemployment rate since May will bring improvements, especially since job growth has almost stabilized.

As you delve into this month’s report, some surprising trends will emerge. Starting Friday, we will start with the good news first: permanent layoffs have not increased significantly, and more people who have temporarily lost their jobs seem to be looking for jobs. In July, 76% of unemployed workers are temporarily layoffs, while 24% of workers are permanently unemployed. This is a slight increase from June, when permanent layoffs occurred in June, and is much higher than the 10% rate in April. But in general, permanent unemployment has not increased-this is a promising signal, because if the relationship between the former employer and them is completely severed, it will be difficult for workers to return to the labor market.

In industry, all major economic sectors We have been following Throughout the recovery process Keep getting a job In July:

Jobs still hasn’t caught up to the pre-crisis level

Net change in total employment by sector in different time frames

Net change in last employment…
Industrial sector 1 month 3 months 6 months
put up +20,000 +639,000 -398,000
Education and health services +215,000 +1,170,000 -1,559,000
Leisure and hospitality +592,000 +3,978,000 -4,281,000
Professional and business services +170,000 +648,000 -1,621,000
Retail +258,300 +1,471,100 -910,300
Transport and storage +37,900 +99,800 -470,300

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

For some of the regions most affected by the coronavirus-related shutdowns in the spring, these figures are encouraging, although we should remember that no region is close to returning to pre-crisis employment levels. For example, despite the recent tremendous progress, the total number of jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry has decreased by 4.3 million in the past six months.As an infection Maintain a high level of risk throughout the country, Such bars, restaurants, hotels and other companies may find it difficult to continue to maintain rapid employment growth.

While state and local governments obtain There were also nearly 300,000 jobs last month. This may be the Haishi Rage Building. Almost all of these benefits come from education, and this is where we may encounter problems with the BLS approach. Seasonal adjustment Under normal circumstances, this depends on the ebb and flow of employment.The problem of this month is This summer, many teachers were fired earlier than usual.,might have Artificially inflated the number of employed persons in July.

Women-used to During this recession, he was hit harder than men -This month did make some substantial gains. Their unemployment rate dropped from 11.7% in June to 10.6% in July. The unemployment rate for Hispanic or Latino workers hit a peak of nearly 19% in April and reached 12.9% this month, which is a big improvement.

But even though the economic prospects of almost every population group improved in July, some of the most vulnerable workers were still left behind. The unemployment rate of black workers has hardly improved (less than one percentage point) and remains the highest among all races and ethnicities, at 14.6%. The unemployment rate for black or African-American women has fallen particularly slowly; the unemployment rate in July fell by only 0.6 percentage points.

All of these gains are (at least in part) due to Huge amount of money The federal government has been pumping into the economy since March, and some of them have begun to fail. E.g, People keep spending money, Despite the high unemployment rate, because the federal government keeps unemployed workers running, they have to receive an additional $600 in benefits each week. However, no one gets the 600 USD payment right now, Because it expires at the end of July And Congress is Still deadlocked Regarding whether to expand it.Moreover, there is no more stimulus money to stimulate consumer spending-let alone the additional funds provided by the federal program This helps small businesses retain or bring workers back to their payroll -In the future, companies may try to keep workers working.

Simultaneously, Nick BunkerThe head of North American economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, a research organization that is indeed linked to the job search website, pointed out that so far, we have not seen anything close to a V-shaped recovery, some of which are President Trump’s advisers Continue to predict with confidence.

Bunker said: “It is important to remember that this is where we are after months of rebound and unprecedented fiscal stimulus.” However, it will be more and more difficult to achieve greater success, especially if More and more temporary layoffs become permanent layoffs.

He said, if anything, the decline in the unemployment rate shows that the government’s investment in the economy is working, not that it’s time to shut down money. Bunker said: “No one should now think that’the mission is complete’.”

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