Voters who think the economy is the country’s biggest problem are quite exaggerated. It may not help him much.

July 6, 2020
4:58 am

Justice News Flash Report

Voters who think the economy is the country’s biggest problem are quite exaggerated. It may not help him much.

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President Trump may be trouble.From now to November, there are still many changes, but historically, economic strength is Related to the electoral strength of the current presidentAt present, it seems that the economic situation is still not ideal.

From mid-March to the end of May, 38 million Americans applied Unemployment insurance.even if the talent market It has shown some signs of improvement. Many Americans are still unemployed. In June, more people who lost their jobs were permanently laid off.Moreover, if the economic recovery progresses slowly-or stops and starts to decline-it is likely to be a drag Trump’s re-election opportunity. At least, the economic downturn eliminated his strongest re-election argument.

Even in a more normal election year, many voters still worry about the economy. American National Election Studies, which has been tracking public opinion since 1948, has been asking voters for years what they think are the most important issues facing the country. In the past three presidential election cycles, Americans have made the economy their top concern, making it the most frequently mentioned issue. In 2008 (our last time during the presidential election financial crisis), 42% of Americans say that the economy is the most important political issue. Since then, the share of the economy as the top issue has fallen, from 32% in 2012 to 11% in 2016.

So far in 2020, opinion polls show that from one-fifth to one-third of voters, the economy is their top priority. But let’s go back to 2020 for now. So, what do we know about these voters?

According to Michael Lewis-Beck, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa, it is clear that everyone is an economic voter to some degree. Economic vote And comparative politics. His research found that unless there is a big war, the economy is often regarded as the country’s most important issue.Lewis-Beck told me: “This is always the top priority on the agenda of ordinary voters.” Many voter factors The state of the national economy enters their vote Even if this is not the most important issue for them.

But this does not mean that all voters give equal priority to the economy. In fact, according to our analysis of ANES data, there are two main characteristics that correspond to economically conscious voters: higher income or college degree. Compared with voters, these voters are also more likely to be considered Republicans than black, and they are more likely to be white or Hispanic.

First of all, as shown in the table below, people with household incomes of US$100,000 or more have consistently stated that the economy is the most important issue facing the country, and high-income countries have higher incomes than households with lower incomes. For example, in 2008, only 36% of households with an annual income of less than US$50,000 considered the economy to be the top priority, while 51% of households with an annual income of US$100,000 or more considered the economy to be the most important issue. In 2016, when all groups were unlikely to say that the economy was their biggest concern, this pattern, although not so obvious, still existed.

Wealthy voters tend to prioritize the economy

Percentage of voters who say that the economy is the most important issue facing the country

Household income	Year 2008	2012	2016
$100,000 +	51.1%	37.4%	13.4%
$50,000 to $99,999	47.0	35.9	11.3
Less than $50k	35.9	27.7	9.7

Next, education. These differences are not as obvious as differences in income levels. The education level produced a gap of 11 points at most in the last three presidential election cycles. However, as you can see in the table below, those with at least a bachelor’s degree or some college degree have always been more inclined to make economics their top priority than those with a high school diploma or below. The gap in 2016 has also been greatly reduced.

Well-educated voters say the economy is the main problem

Percentage of voters who say that the economy is the most important issue facing the country

education level	Year 2008	2012	2016
At least a bachelor’s degree	47.3%	37.2%	12.5%
Some universities or associate degrees	44.0	31.3	11.7
Below high school graduation	36.6	28.0	9.1

Although the model here is not inconsistent with income or education level, race and ethnicity also reveal some of the things that voters care most about the economy. White and Hispanic voters are always more likely than black voters to put the economy first. In 2016, the percentage of Hispanic voters was slightly higher than that of white voters, and they said the economy was their number one problem.Lewis-Beck (Lewis-Beck) also found a similar trend in his work Research by yourselfSimilarly, they describe Hispanics as voters with almost a single problem financially.

More white and Hispanic voters worry about the economy

Percentage of voters who say that the economy is the most important issue facing the country

race	Year 2008	2012	2016
White	44.1%	32.3%	11.5%
Hispanic	43.1	37.6	12.3
Black	31.9	24.2	6.4

There are also meaningful differences between Democrats and Republicans. Republicans believe that the economy is the most important issue facing the United States more than Democrats, although you can see in the table below that partisan divisions have never been great, and they were not so obvious in 2012.

Republican voters tend to put the economy first

Percentage of voters who say that the economy is the most important issue facing the country

Party	Year 2008	2012	2016
Republican/Lean Republican	45.6%	33.4%	14.5%
Purely independent	35.5	29.3	10.8
Democrats/Lean Democrats	40.3	31.0	8.0

In the end, what we do know is that groups of voters who prioritize the economy tend to favor the wealthier and highly educated, and they tend to be whites, Hispanics, and Republicans. However, the exact number and composition of the group will vary with the election. For example, in 2016, only 11% of voters said that the economy was the most important issue, and this small group was overwhelmingly bankrupt for Trump — 60% supported him, while only 32% supported Hillary Clinton . Given that in 2008 and 2012, more voters considered the economy to be the most pressing issue (42% and 32%, respectively), but they went bankrupt for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama – 51 in 2008 % To 46%, 51% to 47% in 2012.

So, what do we know about these economically conscious voters? What approach might they take in 2020?

First, since we do not have a large number of recent polls, it is difficult to know exactly how many voters think that the economy is the number one issue this year. But in the three polls that began in June, people asked the most important questions that affected their vote. We know: (i) about a quarter of Americans named the economy the most important question, and (ii) Trump still has the following advantages: These voters lead Joe Biden to varying degrees:

in a Reuters/Ipsos Survey, 20% of voters choose the economy as the most important issue facing the country, and these voters reluctantly support Trump, accounting for 44% to 41%.
One Economist/YouGov Poll It was found that 22% of voters believe that “economy and employment” are the most important issues for them, but this survey makes Trump 44 points Lead Biden in this group (70% to 26%).
While in Axios/SurveyMonkey pollTrump said that among 33% of adults, Biden (from 56% to 29%) leads by 27 points, and they say that work and the economy are the most important to them. There were more respondents who said the economy had any other problem.

Trump’s advantage in this group of voters is justified, because opinion polls show that they are more likely to be white, have higher incomes and tend to be Republicans (like the ANES survey in the past few years); at least according to According to SurveyMonkey’s polls, they are also more likely to vote for Trump in 2016. “Polls show that 50% of Trump voters regard work and the economy as the most critical issues at the moment, and the proportion of Biden voters focused on these issues has more than doubled.” “For Trump voters. In terms, there are no other problems reaching double digits.”

But it is not yet clear how much this advantage will help Trump among economically focused voters. According to Emory University political science professor Alan Abramowitz (Alan Abramowitz), this is because these voters may have become part of Trump’s base. Abramowitz said: “Voters who prioritize the economy are often Republicans, so they have tended to support the president.”

Compared with the past, the current economy may have a much smaller impact on people’s voting choices. Increased party ties And Trump’s view is Pretty at this point, So the economic situation may not change the minds of many people. All of this means that the people you support may say more about whether you consider the economy a top priority rather than the other way around.

Abramowitz also suspects that this “economically conscious” voter will expand into a wider coalition, because some voters will consider other issues, such as the pandemic, which is more urgent than this year’s economy. Voters’ concerns about this issue may have been reflected in the fact that health care is the first or second most popular choice in all three recent polls.

As we have already seen, the current events may exacerbate the severity of issues that have not attracted the attention of voters in past elections, such as racial discrimination and police brutality. Ipsos wrote: “Similar to the first two weeks of June, the proportion of respondents who said “other” was still higher than the average, at 17%. When asked to point out, racism, police brutality , The party and the current government are the same theme.”

In fact, Abramowitz told me that he thought Trump might even lose some seats among economically focused voters. For example, voters who have been reluctant to support Trump may not need a recession to sting the president-the economy is just one of many factors that influence their views.Take Trump as a whole Job recognition: Constantly hovering at the low point of the 1940s, his deficit with Biden The national opinion survey is bigger than ever.So if the coronavirus pandemic worsens-both the number of cases and deaths Rise in some places Now-this is possible Will hurt Trump’s view as a way to deal with the crisis Drive away some economically conscious voters who are willing to vote for him.

Bottom line: It is not yet clear what role the economy will play in 2020. In the last three presidential elections, the economy has been the top issue most frequently mentioned by voters (although some voters said that their country’s biggest issue has changed from the cycle). Historically, white voters and voters with higher income or higher education are more likely to rank the economy than any other issue.

But there is no reason to believe that the size and composition of the economically conscious electorate looks like the recent general election.White college-educated voters have A sharp move to the Democrats In recent years, even with the booming economy, many Americans still disapprove of Trump. This means that although the organization now looks a lot like Trump’s base, it may be because non-Trump voters prioritize other issues, not because Trump has gained support among those concerned about the economy. By. Therefore, it is still possible for Trump to win these voters but lose the election. The question now is: If the economic situation is still bad in November, how much harm will it actually do to Trump? And, of course, how many voters will prioritize economics over other issues, such as police brutality and systemic racism, the COVID-19 pandemic, or other major issues?